1) NVDA should continue to weigh on markets as we have outlined for most of summer, the DOJ will also be putting pressure on NVDA .
a. Can you get a more bearish NVDA picture than this - https://www.ourinterest.org/post/what-is-moving-the-markets-august-23rd b. The DOJ is bringing anti-monopolistic action against NVDA, unclear as always if that will succeed since NVDA can always appeal and companies have essentially learned to fight the regulators successfully in the last decade.
c. More importantly though can AI rake in the billions of dollars that Google, Meta, Twitter/ X etc expect in the form of chat bots ? I doubt and thus NVDA has a problem.
d. China is working towards self-sufficiency in chips, this will happen but when is the real question and that is beyond our knowledge, but the point is that will be bearish news for NVDA when ever it happens.
e. Finally this seems to be Democrats shooting themselves in the foot here (will do a video on this).
2) BOC is today and I've come across the interesting argument that if they cut 50bps take that as a sign that the Fed well cut by that amount as well; I don't buy that argument but it is out there. Let's unpack this quickly the argument rests on the fact that the BOC head was at Jackson Hole not to speak but rather to talk to Powell about his next steps, while that may be the case... it is unlikely that Powell would have overtly stated "yup we are going to cut 50bps in September because at the end of the day it is a vote for the FOMC to make.
3) Somehow UK PMI's and data is still coming in very strong, starting to get suspicious as a Brit !
4) The Eurozone meanwhile is discussing recession and how to get out of it; Volkswagen is reportedly discussing leaving Germany ! The idea of selling EURGBP rallies seems intact to us.
5) Seasonally September has been an awful month for US stocks, while we don't want to play the seasonal game blindly it is important to note this enduring one and understand why it happens.
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